Fresh fears of another pricing battle have gripped Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector as fuel marketers and importers tread cautiously amid uncertainty over the next move by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Although the landing cost of imported petrol has dropped below Dangote’s ex-depot price, many importers have refused to slash prices aggressively, worried that the refinery could trigger another round of sharp reductions that would wipe out their investments.
Industry operators say memories of the fierce price competition witnessed in 2025 remain fresh, with several marketers still recovering from losses suffered after Dangote repeatedly lowered its prices.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, described the current situation as a “ding-dong game” between the refinery and fuel importers.
According to him, importers are reluctant to flood the market with fresh cargoes because of fears that Dangote could unexpectedly announce another major price cut.
“This business is like a ding-dong game,” Ukadike said.
“The importers are very wary of Dangote’s strength and pricing strategy. It becomes difficult for them to continue importing massively without watching Dangote’s next move.”
Industry players explained that petrol importation involves weeks of planning, foreign exchange commitments and shipping arrangements.
If a marketer imports products at one price only for Dangote to reduce its gantry price before the cargo is sold, the importer could be forced to sell below cost.
Ukadike admitted that the situation has already affected operators across the industry.
“Importers are wary that because of Dangote’s significant fiscal position in the oil and gas industry, it might make a drastic reduction that would affect those who have imported. They will go home with a lot of losses.
“Even we independent marketers are losing money with the recent reductions by Dangote,” he stated.
Since late 2024, Dangote Refinery has emerged as the dominant price setter in Nigeria’s petrol market, replacing the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, which previously held that position when it was virtually the country’s sole importer of petrol.
With its enormous refining capacity and financial strength, market observers say every pricing decision by Dangote now reverberates across the downstream sector.
As a result, marketers increasingly wait for signals from the refinery before adjusting their own prices.
Although imported petrol currently lands cheaper than Dangote’s ex-depot price, importers remain cautious.
Industry data released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria showed the landing cost at N1,023 per litre compared to Dangote’s previous gantry price of N1,075.
Rather than slash prices immediately, many operators are choosing to protect themselves against possible future reductions.
Analysts say this cautious approach partly explains why consumers have not fully benefited from falling international crude prices.
The pricing uncertainty has also reignited debate over government intervention.
Following concerns expressed by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission over possible consumer exploitation, marketers warned against any attempt to reintroduce price controls.
Ukadike insisted that operators were already under financial pressure and could not absorb further losses.
“If they try somehow to enforce price control, marketers will shut down our stations nationwide.
“You can’t regulate a deregulated market. You can’t tell me how much to sell my product without trying to know how much I bought it,” he warned.
For millions of Nigerians, the battle between Dangote and importers has translated into uncertainty rather than lower fuel prices.
While competition was expected to bring cheaper petrol after deregulation, marketers remain hesitant, Dangote continues gradual price reductions and consumers are left waiting for a more decisive decline.
