Jude Diugwu
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has faulted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for downgrading its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025 from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent on the back of the global oil slump.
This according to the think tank, was because the Nigerian economy, under the administration of President Bola Tinubu, was not solely dependent on oil considering the substantial growth in the country’s non-oil export year-on-year as a result of ongoing economic diversification and the impact of government policies.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that it was more favourably disposed to the 7 percent growth forecast by Minister of Finance and Coordinating minister of the Economy Wale Edun.
It said, “In its economic outlook, the IMF downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 per cent, down from 3.2 per cent, while growth for 2026 was also revised downward by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7 per cent.
“The IMF justified this forecast by citing projected lower global oil prices as a significant risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances. We wonder how a single factor can be responsible for the projected massive decline in the size of an economy, moreso, when Nigeria is moving away from its dependency on crude oil earnings.
“However, the World Bank’s projection, on the other hand, offers a more optimistic view. In its report, the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.6 per cent in 2025, building on an estimated 3.4 per cent expansion in 2024 and, thereafter, strengthening to 3.8 per cent by 2027.
“The bank credited the federal administration’s possible sustenance of economic reforms with the gradual stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment. Critical to the World Bank’s projection is the expected improvement in the performance of the non-oil sectors, mainly services such as financial services, telecommunications, and information technology, as well as easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment.”
IMPI also argued that it was not unusual for countries to pick holes in IMF’s projections while citing the examples of Mexico and Zambia where it was proved wrong.
“IMF’s GDP data discrepancies are not unique to Nigeria. At different times, its country members worldwide have had cause to dispute the body’s projections on various grounds. Mexico, for instance, has also disagreed with the IMF on its forecasts,” he said.
According to the group, Mexico disagreed with the IMF’s projection in its World Economic Outlook by proving that their economic models did not coincide with their projections.
The group wrote: “the IMF forecasted a 0.3 per cent contraction in Mexico’s economic growth for 2025, down from the Fund’s January forecast of a 1.4 per cent expansion, as U.S. tariffs bite into exports.
“In dismissing the IMF’s forecast, the Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum declared, “We do not know what it is based on. We disagree. We have our economic models, which the finance ministry has, that do not coincide with this projection.”
“She added that public investments would prevent the economy from contracting. She touted her government’s “Plan Mexico,” an effort to boost domestic industry amid tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump imposed on some imports from Mexico.
“From the foregoing, it is clear why Nigerians should not take the recent IMF’s negative economic projections very seriously. Experience has shown that several IMF projections on developing economies, such as ours, often prove inaccurate.
“In 2008, the IMF predicted that Zambia would be hit by the fall in copper prices during the financial crisis. The IMF was proven wrong as the Zambian economy survived the global downturn.”
