The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has said the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Project Incentives (Tax Remission) Executive Order 2026 signed by President Bola Tinubu could unlock an additional one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate from Nigeria’s deep offshore fields within the next four to five years.
The Commission also projected that the new fiscal framework could unlock as much as $50 billion in fresh investments, as operators move ahead with projects that have already secured regulatory approval.
Executive Commissioner, Development and Production, NUPRC, Engr. Enorense Amadasu, disclosed this during a live programme on the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), hosted by Cyril Stober.
Amadasu said the Executive Order had created a more transparent and rules-based investment framework capable of supporting the next generation of deep offshore developments.
According to him, Nigeria was currently producing about 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, with deep offshore operations accounting for about 24 per cent of total oil production and 19 per cent of gas production.
Giving an indication of the potential of the deep offshore sector, Amadasu said Nigeria had already extracted more than 4.6 billion barrels from deep offshore assets, describing the volume in cargo terms as equivalent to about 5,000 tankers.
He said: “We are on the right path, all thanks to Mr President. It will be a huge leap. As of today, we have mined over 4.6 billion barrels from deep offshore assets. In cargo terms, that is about 5,000 tankers.”
Amadasu said the new framework would provide greater incentives for additional investments and developments in the deep offshore sector, particularly projects that have already received regulatory approvals.
According to him, several Field Development Plans (FDPs) worth billions of dollars have already been approved by NUPRC, leaving Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) as the next major step for a number of projects.
“So, where will these volumes be coming from? Nine of these projects have approved FDPs, so the next step expected is the FID in the near to midterm.”
Amadasu identified the $10 billion Bonga South project as one of the major developments expected to contribute to the anticipated production increase, saying it was expected to come on stream in 2027.
“The $10bn Bonga South will come in 2027 and within the next four to five years, we are expecting almost an additional one million barrels additional per day.”
The NUPRC executive commissioner said the projected production increase would have implications beyond crude oil output, noting that the expected expansion of deep offshore activities would stimulate investments across other segments of the economy.
He specifically identified the marine economy as one of the sectors that would need to expand to support the anticipated growth in offshore operations.
“It also presents an opportunity for other sectors like the marine economy, which will need to expand Nigeria’s logistics/marine base so the country can sustain the volume of deep offshore projects being expected.”
Amadasu said the broader objective was to position Nigeria as a regional hub for deep offshore oil and gas projects adding that, “It aims to make Nigeria the regional hub for deep offshore project.”
Beyond increased crude oil production and investment, he said the Executive Order would also support the growth of Nigeria’s reserves, promote technology and skills transfer and create additional employment opportunities.
The development comes as the Federal Government continues efforts to attract new capital into the upstream sector, increase production and maximise the economic benefits of Nigeria’s hydrocarbon resources.
With several deep offshore projects already having approved FDPs, the NUPRC said the new incentives were expected to accelerate operators’ movement towards FIDs and ultimately unlock additional production capacity.
The Commission maintained that the successful implementation of the framework would strengthen investment confidence while supporting Nigeria’s ambition to increase oil and gas production and deepen economic value from its offshore resources.