The World Bank on Tuesday retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 at 4.4 per cent, the same estimate published in its Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report released in October last year.
The latest 2026 growth projection for Nigeria released by the Bank is, however, an upgrade compared with the 3.7 percent forecast it made for the country this year in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the Bank said that Nigeria’s growth in 2026 and 2027 will be driven by a continued expansion in services, a rebound in agricultural output and a modest acceleration in non-oil industry.
The report said: “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade. This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in non-oil industry. Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity. They are also expected to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”
It also stated that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 percent in 2025, “driven by expansion in the services sector—especially the finance and information and communication technology sectors—a modest recovery in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.”
According to the report, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is forecast to strengthen to 4.3 percent in 2026, “supported by ongoing reforms in some large economies, solid domestic investment growth, and a continued easing of inflation.”
“In many economies, fiscal consolidation efforts are being prompted by the narrowing of fiscal space resulting from cuts to official development assistance, elevated government debt, and higher debt-servicing costs,” the report added.
It, however, said that despite the improved growth outlook, per capita income gains are expected to remain inadequate for significant progress in reducing extreme poverty and boosting job creation.
The Bank stated that risks to SSA’s growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, citing “weaker-than-expected external demand, lower commodity prices, increased regional political instability, and worsening conflict could dent growth prospects.”
In addition, the Bretton Woods institution said that further declines in donor support could heighten the vulnerability of SSA economies to shocks, including public health risks and natural disasters.
Meanwhile, the Bank, which said that the, “global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” projected that global growth will remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from the June forecast.
It stated: “The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth—especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026. Even so, if these forecasts hold, the 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s.
“The sluggish pace is widening the gap in living standards across the world, the report finds: at the end of 2025, nearly all advanced economies enjoyed per capita incomes exceeding their 2019 levels, but about one in four developing economies had lower per capita incomes.”
Commenting on the report, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose, said: “With public debt in emerging and developing economies at its highest level in more than half a century, restoring fiscal credibility has become an urgent priority.
“Well-designed fiscal rules can help governments stabilize debt, rebuild policy buffers, and respond more effectively to shocks. But rules alone are not enough: credibility, enforcement, and political commitment ultimately determine whether fiscal rules deliver stability and growth.”
