Aviation Minister, Festus Keyamo, has said that the chances of the Peoples Democratic Party to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027 will depend on extraordinary events, otherwise it will have to wait till 2031.
In a post on his X handle, Keyamo said the PDP has limited options in its choice of a presidential candidate in 2027.
In his analysis of the possible frontrunners for the party’s presidential ticket, he says it would be too much of a risk for the PDP to make former President Goodluck Jonathan its flagbearer.
According to Keyamo who is also a lawyer, the PDP might end up without a candidate in the main election if Jonathan emerges because of section 137 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (Fourth Amendment). He says a court might disqualify Jonathan from running by virtue of that section which forbids a deputy that completes the term of his boss from running for election beyond another term in office. Jonathan completed the term of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010 and was elected in 2011.
In the event that the Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde is chosen, Keyamo said he stands little chance against Tinubu in the South West, shed will be rejected in the North because of the fear that he would seek re-election after his first term, potentially encroaching into the turn of the north.
He said ex-governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi will face backlash from his Obidients who may worry why he was going back to the same PDP he had referred to as “structure of criminality.”
Hear him: “Let me poke my nose a bit today: the position of PDP is not an enviable one at all.
“SCENARIO ONE: In 2023, PDP lacked the balls to deliberately zone its Presidential ticket to the South, so it woefully lost its decades-long stranglehold on the S/South and S/East, the two of its most loyal regions since 1999. To correct that, it has now deliberately zoned its 2027 Presidential ticket to the South to win back the southern regions into the Party.
“SCENARIO TWO: One of its attractive targets as a Presidential candidate is ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, because of his purported eligibility to run for only one term. But, if he is fielded, the Party runs the RISK of NOT HAVING A CANDIDATE AT ALL by virtue of section 137 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (Fourth Amendment).
“The constitutional amendment was made AFTER the court judgment which cleared him to run in 2015, so nothing is decided yet on that new amendment, hence I use the word ‘RISK’ advisedly. All the arguments as to whether the section can be interpreted to affect him will not be decided on Social Media, but at the Supreme Court. If he is barred from running AFTER nominations have closed and the PDP is declared as having no candidate, nobody should scream ‘judiciary is corrupt’ because such a large party saw the judicial danger ahead and deliberately ignored it.
“SCENARIO THREE: If the PDP decides to field its most attractive S/West candidate, no other region of the country will vote for a fresh Yoruba candidate who would be eligible for fresh two terms in office. And that candidate will battle with the well-oiled APC structures in the S/West. You need a majority of at least 3 to 4 regions in Nigeria to win the Presidency.
“SCENARIO FOUR: If the PDP woos back Peter Obi, scenario three above will still apply to him, hence all his shout of serving one-term of recent. In addition, the principled ones amongst the ‘obidients’ will see him as going back to his vomit of ‘structure of criminality’ and may not be too vociferous in their support anymore.
“This is happening to PDP because it committed an original sin in 2023 by lacking the balls to zone its Presidential ticket to the South.
“The young social media warriors may lampoon anyone talking about these zoning sentiments, but that is the REALITY of our politics and it is not about to end.
“EXCEPT something EXTRAORDINARY happens, the Party may have to wait till 2031.
“But let me face my work for now. I work during the week, and I poke my nose at weekends. Next time, I will poke my nose into the dilemma of another party.”