Why Gov Makinde may lose re-election bid

Oyo state gubernatorial elections will definitely go down to the wire as Governor Seyi Makinde battle against enemies within in his long fight to stay afloat, DAVID KABIYESI

 

As you take a long walk down the dusty and bumpy road of Akintola Street, Ekotedo Ibadan, you are greeted by the faces of three gubernatorial candidates on campaign posters positioned side by side on a crumbling fence. It is no small achievement that at one time few would have thought possible. This is largely due to war of words, name-calling, and campaign of calumny that had characterized Oyo State politics in the past.

Of course, the people of Oyo state enjoy getting drunk in stories of their political exceptionalism which forbade state governors to run for political office twice. This belief was backed by a common myth in Oyo State that says:” Ibadan don’t serve Governor twice” until all of that changed in 2015 when the late Abiola Ajimobi defeated Alao Akala and became the only governor to serve twice in the political history of the state.

All eyes will be on Oyo State when Nigerians go to the polls this Saturday to elect their governors. The reason for this is not far-fetched; this is because gubernatorial elections in the state always go down the wire. Besides, the three candidates namely, Governor Seyi Makinde of the People Democratic Party, Teslim Folarin of the All Progressive Congress, and Adebayo Adelabu of the Accord Party believe they stand a good chance come Saturday.

Besides, the three frontrunners are well known by voters in Oyo state and voters equally believe any of them could make a good governor. That explains why Governor Makinde will have to dig deeper into his technical books of tricks and come out with a winning formula that would see him become the second governor to be an exception to the old Ibadan myth.

Makinde’s many rivers to cross
Fourteen political parties will go neck-to-neck with Makinde come Saturday, but it is clear to all and sundry that Oyo State gubernatorial elections have been narrowed down to three horse races between Makinde, Adelabu, and Folarin.

While the power of incumbency is highly expected to come into play on Saturday, it won’t be that easy peasy for Makinde if the cracks within the coalitions that brought him to power are anything to go by. Olufemi Lanlehin of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Sharafadeen Alli of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), and Social Democratic Party (SDP) top brass, Bolaji Ayorinde, are some of the politicians that backed Makinde all the way to emerge governor in 2019. Others are Rashidi Ladoja, the former governor of the state, and former Oyo central senator, Monsurat Sunmonu complete the lists.

The formidable wall that Makinde once leaned on in 2019 is beginning to develop cracks after Lanlehin and Ayorinde left the party. Other top brass like Kola Balogun and Mulikat Adeola has taken a long walk out of the party after the coalition fought dirty over Makinde’s victory spoils. How quickly friends can turn to foes as the once reliable coalitions vows to ensure the former Shell Oil boss never return as governor.

Another major fight before Makinde is his resolve not to support Atiku’s presidency in Oyo State as agreed on by five state governors. As predicted by iwitnesslive.com, Atiku came to Ibadan, saw, and was defeated by APC Bola Tinubu. That hurts deeply and the PDP is bent on taking their pound of flesh by working against Makinde.

Members of the party in the state also accused the governor of sideling them in the scheme of things  by appointing those who played no part in his hard-fought victory in 2019.

Makinde is faced with a fierce battle against what has been termed as “enemies within” who accused him of betraying the party’s trust.

The Threats
Of the two gubernatorial candidates, Adebayo Adelabu of the Accord Party seems to be oman riots that could give Seyi Makinde a good run for his money. Armed to the teeth by his wealth of experience and influence in Oyo State politics where he commands a lot of respect, the former CBN deputy Governor had defected to the Accord party after he lost in APC governorship primaries. He has also formed a coalition to oust Makinde.

As for Teslim Folarin of APC, the highly experienced politician might be in the ruling party, but he knows he is fighting his war alone as far as Saturday’s guber election is concerned. One, it was rumored that he is not Tinubu’s preferred choice as party guber candidate for the state. Secondly,  he is not close to the president-elect.

While many political pundits would think Makinde would be getting much-needed support from Asiwaju at a time lime this, having helped the party edge out Atiku in the presidential elections, word was rife in Lagos that Tiunubu has opted to sit on the fence and watch rather than engage in any activity that could jeopardize party interest. So, Makinde is on his own.

Finally
While Makinde believes his track records in his first tenure would be enough to return him to state house, pundits believe he is fighting against many enemies, to say the least. As for residents of Akintola road Ekotedo, Ibadan, all that matters is having a good road in their neighborhood, and the only way they can achieve that is by voting wisely.