Nigerians have a date with history once again as 87.2 millions of them with Parment Voters Cards elect a new President that will take over from the incumbent on May 29, 2023.
18 candidates are jostling for the top seat at Aso Villa but Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Party, Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, and Labour Party flag bearer, Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State are regarded as the front runners.
Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party could also pull some weight as many watchers see him as the spoiler to the chances of some front runners and could play a role in deciding who emerges as the winner after today’s exercise.
Other presidential candidates are Dumebi Kachikwu of the African Democratic Congress; Rabiu Kwankwaso, New Nigeria People’s Party; Kola Abiola, People’s Redemption Party; Omoyele Sowore, Africa Action Congress; Adewole Adebayo, Social Democratic Party; Malik Ado-Ibrahim, Young Progressive Party; Prof Christopher Imumulen, Accord Party; Prof Peter Umeadi, All Progressives Grand Alliance; and Yusuf Mamman Dan Talle, Allied Peoples Movement.
The list also includes Hamza Al-Mustapha, Action Alliance; Sani Yusuf, Action Democratic Party; Nnnadi Osita, Action Peoples Party; Oluwafemi Adenuga, Boot Party; Osakwe Felix Johnson, National Rescue Movement; and Nwanyanwu Daniel Daberechukwu, Zenith Labour Party.
The composition of the lineup of the candidate displays a similitude with the 1978 elections where the list of front runners evenly represented each of the main tribes in the country, Igbo, Yoruba, and Hausa/Fulani.
The 1978 polls conducted under the supervision of the then general Olusegun Obasanjo had Alhaji Shehu Shagari, a Hausa/ Fulani man contesting on the platform of the National Party of Nigeria, NPN. An Igbo man, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe represented the Nigerian People’s Party, NPP, while Chief Obafemi Awolowo from Yoruba extraction flew the flag of the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN. Notably, Shagari emerged as the eventual winner albeit controversial.
In today’s elections, Atiku, a Hausa/ Fulani man; Obi who is an Igbo while Tinubu is on the ballot representing the Yorubas but is still unclear if the identities of these front runners would influence the outcome of these polls.
To emerge as president, one of these candidates must receive a plurality of the votes cast and at least 25 per cent of votes from 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Therefore, in Nigeria’s 24 years since the return to democracy, one winner has always emerged with a wide margin of at least 2.5 million popular votes but the dynamism of the reality on the ground shows it will be difficult for any of the candidates to pull the effort through in the first ballot.
According to the INEC, a total of 87,209,007 voters out of the 93,469,008 registered voters, who have collected their Permanent Voter Cards, will determine the next set of leaders. Of the total eligible voters, 49,054,162 (52.5 per cent) are male. Female voters constitute 47.5 per cent, with 44,414,846.
Elections will be held in 176,606 polling units located in 8,809 registration areas or electoral wards in 774 local government areas nationwide. The commission, however, said voting would not take place in 240 polling units mainly because of insecurity or because communities there have been displaced by violence.
INEC says it will need 707,384 presiding and assistant presiding officers, 17,685 supervisory presiding officers, 9,620 returning officers and 530,538 security officials to oversee the elections.
Polling stations will be open for six hours, from 8.30am to 2.30pm. Voters who are still in the queue as of 2.30 pm will be allowed to go through and cast their ballots.
Over 200,000 Bimodal Voter Accreditation Systems are being deployed to verify voter identity through fingerprint or facial recognition to help combat fraud, corruption and tallying errors.
National Assembly Polls
Ostensibly, the presidential election is the ultimate but Nigerians would also vote for candidates that will represent them at the Senate and House of Representatives today.
1,101 candidates from all 18 parties are jostling for 109 senatorial seats while 3,122 candidates for House of Representatives seats, making a total of 4,223 candidates contesting for 469 legislative positions.
Key factors that may determine winners
Although President Buhari through the Naira Redesigning Policy attempted to curtail the influence of money in the electoral process, it remains to be seen if the method would significantly curb vote trading.
Money has always played a significant role in elections in this part of the world and political watchers still believe Nigerian politicians are as witty as they could be and would still find a way around the impediments put on the ground by the present administration.
Buhari’s naira policy has met resistance from Nigerians who are suffering as a result of the cash crunch and hardship it generated but the administration is convinced it would strengthen the democratic process which will benefit the country in the long run.
His administration believes the politicians kicking against the policy were doing so because it hurt them the most because they could not be able to deploy the old notes they had stockpiled for the purposes of buying votes.
Insecurity is rife in the country and that could also be reflected in the outcome of today’s polls. The whole north has been ravaged by the activities of the religious extremists including Boko Haram and ISWAP in the North-East while the attacks by bandits have almost paralysed human and economic activities of the people of the Northwest and Northcentral.
The heightened attacks by gunmen suspected to be Eastern State Network, an armed win of the separatist group Independent People of Biafra have made life almost inhabitable for the people of southeast while pockets of criminal activities including robbery, and kidnapping are still rampant in the Southwest.
the level of insecurity could force voters’ apathy which will inevitably hurt the polls as voters could be scared to come out and cast their ballot.
The role of security operatives in the polls could also go a long way but more importantly, the effectiveness of the electoral umpire, INEC, is germane to the overall success of the exercise.
